The Manifest Issue 10 June 19, 2026

The switch you cannot order; an ALJ takes command of UP–NS discovery; the NTSB says the DOT-111 retrofit failed too; terminals reflect their leadership

The largest railroad merger in a generation has finally agreed on its disease

Section I

From the Field

■ From the Field

The Switch You Cannot Order.

The largest railroad merger in a generation has finally agreed on its disease.

And it comes apart on the cure.

On the disease, the room is very nearly unanimous — members of Congress from both parties, Republican attorneys general and legislative leaders across more than twenty states, and the Board itself, which accepted Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern in May, then held it in abeyance. This consolidation has outrun the operating reality beneath it.

The competition deficit is no longer in dispute.

The cure is where it breaks. The prescription is reciprocal switching, written into the deal as a condition: drop a second carrier into the captive shipper's plant, and the shipper is captive no more. I worked the captive end of this — the Bayer plant, the Union Tank facility, the Kraft Heinz dock — and a switching order drops no one. It presupposes a second railroad already standing in the terminal, already holding the interchange, already running its own rail to where the freight has to go: the exact thing forty years of consolidation removed. When CSX and Norfolk Southern faced it with Conrail, they did not write an order. They built a railroad.

You can order the switch.

You cannot order the switching district.

This week's full argument — why the cure the room is reaching for cannot be compelled, and why Union Pacific's own contract treats imposing it as grounds to walk from eighty-five billion dollars:

Read the full editorial on LinkedIn →
Read this editorial standalone →
Section II

Rail & Energy Markets

■ Rail & Energy Markets
Railroad Stocks
UNP Union Pacific $256.88 -1.62 (-0.6%) CSX CSX Corp $45.63 +0.06 (+0.1%) NSC Norfolk Southern $300.08 +10.43 (+3.6%) CP CPKC $86.03 -1.18 (-1.4%) CNI Canadian National $113.43 -0.64 (-0.6%) WAB Wabtec $273.83 +1.97 (+0.7%) GBX Greenbrier $49.69 +0.79 (+1.6%) GATX GATX Corp $177.17 +0.52 (+0.3%)
Energy
CL=F WTI Crude Oil $76.01 +1.47 (+2.0%) BZ=F Brent Crude $79.81 +1.60 (+2.0%) NG=F Natural Gas $3.20 +0.05 (+1.5%)
Section III

Class I Dispatch

■ Class I Dispatch
BNSF
Number 7 limped into Spokane many hours late, with a BNSF leader this morning.

With the prospect of sunrise shots long gone, I decided to catch number 7 at Mohler, w
via Trainorders
Union Pacific
The Surface Transportation Board today issued a decision authorizing the construction and operation by Laredo Gateway Industrial Railway, LLC (LGIR) of an approximately 2.6-mile ra
via STB
CSX
via SMART-TD News
Norfolk Southern
The Surface Transportation Board (STB or Board) today announced a unanimous decision accepting for consideration the revised major merger application filed by Union Pacific (UP) an
via STB
Canadian National
1. CN Tower in Toronto, ON from the CN Spadina Yard Roundhouse in September 1979. Photo by Roger Puta

2. CN Tower in Toronto, ON in March 1981. Photo by Roger Puta
via Trainorders
CPKC
Last Friday, I had an errand I needed to do in Ottumwa, Iowa, so I was listening for any chatter that I might be able to use to plan on seeing any train while I was there. It wasn
via Trainorders
Section IV

Transit & High-Speed Rail

■ Transit & High-Speed Rail
Notice of Petition for Extension of Waiver of Compliance
This document provides the public notice that NJ Transit Corporation (NJT) petitioned FRA for an extension of relief from certain regulations related to its shared use property.
via FRA — Fed Register
Section V

Intelligence Briefing

■ REGULATORY
The Merger Clock Starts. Then It Stops.
Accepting an application and reviewing it are two different acts, and the Board just performed the first while suspending the second. The UP-NS revised application is in the door — but proceedings, including the environmental review, are held in abeyance until Applicants submit supplemental information the Board specifically ordered. What does that tell a field practitioner? That the original filing had gaps the Board would not paper over. This is not the same posture as the old CN-EJ&E or CP-KCS waltzes, where the record arrived more or less complete and the clock simply ran. Here the regulator is signaling that the burden sits with the carriers to prove competitive harm has been measured and mitigated, not asserted. The practical consequence reaches the property faster than most realize. Capital plans, hiring freezes, gateway commitments — all of it now lives in a holding pattern that could run quarters, not weeks. Crews on both railroads will keep hearing 'no decisions until the merger clarifies,' which is how attrition becomes policy without anyone signing the order. The abeyance is the story. The acceptance is the headline.
■ LABOR
Ninety-Eight Percent Is Not a Negotiation. It Is a Verdict.
BLET members at the Long Island Rail Road ratified their new contract at 98 percent after a three-day strike, bargaining as part of a five-union coalition representing 3,500 workers. A number like that does not happen because the deal was generous. It happens because the membership was unified before the first picket sign went up, and a unified craft is the single most dangerous thing a property can face across the table. The strike itself — three days on a commuter railroad moving hundreds of thousands of riders — was the leverage. Management knew the political cost of a prolonged shutdown in the New York region was unbearable, and the coalition knew it too. What should interest every Class I labor relations officer watching this is the coalition structure. Five unions, one front, one timeline. That is the model that broke the old craft-by-craft divide-and-stall playbook. The freight carriers heading into their own national round would do well to study how that solidarity was assembled — because the next coalition may not be confined to a single transit district.
■ GENERAL
Webb County Gets 2.6 Miles Nobody Was Discussing
The Board authorized Laredo Gateway Industrial Railway to build and operate roughly 2.6 miles of new line connecting to the UP Laredo Subdivision and serving a new industrial park. Small mileage, large signal. Laredo is the busiest land port on the southern border, and every carload that moves through it by rail is a truck that did not crawl across the World Trade Bridge. A purpose-built industrial railroad feeding the UP mainline tells you developers are betting on sustained cross-border manufacturing volume — nearshoring made physical, laid in ballast and tie. For the short line world this is the model worth watching: a single-purpose carrier built around an industrial park, connecting to a Class I at one point, capturing first-mile and last-mile revenue the big road has no interest in switching itself. The economics only work if the park fills. But the fact that someone put capital behind track before the tenants signed says the demand forecast is real. Watch what commodities show up on the waybills. That will tell you whether Mexico's manufacturing shift is durable or merely fashionable.
■ SAFETY
NS, Manpower, and the Arithmetic Nobody Wants to Sign
BLET is publicly questioning manpower shortages at Norfolk Southern and the safety consequences that follow. Strip away the labor-management framing and look at the operating reality. When a railroad runs short on crews, the work does not disappear — it gets redistributed onto the people remaining, in the form of longer tours, more away-from-home time, and fatigue that compounds shift over shift. (Translation: they don't have the crews, and the trains still have to move.) A fatigued crew is a degraded crew, and the data on that has been settled for thirty years. The merger overhang makes this worse, not better, because no carrier hires aggressively into a transaction that might consolidate craft territories. So the gap widens while everyone waits for clarity that the Board just held in abeyance. The question a mechanical or transportation officer should be asking is not whether the union is right about the numbers — it is what the recrew rate and the dog-catch frequency actually look like on the affected divisions. Those metrics don't lie, and they don't issue press releases. Pull them.
■ CAPITAL
Barstow Clears the Council. Now the Hard Part.
BNSF's Barstow International Gateway cleared a Barstow City Council approval — a procedural milestone on a project that, if built as scoped, reshapes how Southern California intermodal moves inland. The premise is sound: take containers off the congested Los Angeles and Long Beach drayage corridors and rail them straight to a master-planned intermodal and logistics complex in the high desert, where land is cheap and the network already runs. That relieves pressure on the LA Basin road network and gives BNSF a structural cost and capacity advantage on transcon intermodal. A council vote is not a groundbreaking, though, and projects of this scale die in permitting, water allocation, and air-quality review more often than they die at the council table. The operational payoff — measured in container velocity and reduced dwell at the ports — only materializes years out, and only if the throughput assumptions hold against a softening import picture. But the strategic logic is the kind of long-horizon network bet that the merger discourse tends to drown out. BNSF is building. The others are filing applications.
■ REGULATORY
The Board Quietly Rebuilds How It Sees the Network
The STB streamlined its data collection and rolled out a beta data portal — the sort of administrative housekeeping that draws no headlines and matters enormously. A regulator can only regulate what it can measure. For years the Board's view of carrier performance arrived in formats designed by the carriers, on schedules the carriers preferred, in granularity the carriers tolerated. A modern data portal changes the leverage. If shippers, labor, and the public can pull service metrics in something close to real time, the asymmetry between what a railroad knows about its own performance and what everyone else knows begins to close. That matters acutely right now, with a merger application sitting in abeyance pending supplemental information. Better data infrastructure means the conditions imposed on any approved transaction can be monitored against actual outcomes rather than promised ones. The carriers understand this, which is why data-reporting fights are never really about burden — they are about visibility. The field practitioner's takeaway is simpler: what gets measured gets managed, and the Board just expanded what it can measure.
■ MARKET
The 3Q26 Cost Adjustment Factor Lands on Every Rate Case
The Board set the Rail Cost Adjustment Factor for the third quarter, and while the number itself rarely makes the trade-press front page, it threads through every regulated rate the railroads charge. The RCAF tracks railroad input cost inflation — fuel, labor, materials, capital — and it is the mechanism by which maximum reasonable rates get indexed forward. A captive shipper challenging a rate, a coal utility arguing a contract, a chemical producer with no competitive option — all of them live and die by where this factor lands relative to actual cost movement. When input inflation runs hot and the productivity-adjusted version lags, the gap shows up as margin pressure on the shipper side and rate headroom on the carrier side. The quarterly ritual feels bureaucratic until you are the plant manager whose freight bill just moved. For short lines that interchange under rate structures tied to these indices, the downstream arithmetic is just as real. Read the factor, then read your contracts, then read which way the wind is blowing on fuel. That sequence tells you more than any earnings call.
■ GENERAL
A New Board Member Takes His Seat Mid-Merger
Richard J. Kloster was sworn in as a member of the Surface Transportation Board, and the timing is everything. A new commissioner arriving while the largest rail merger application in a generation sits in abeyance is not a footnote — it is a variable. The Board is small, its votes are consequential, and a single member's analytical posture on competition, environmental review, and labor impacts can shift how conditions are written or whether an approval comes at all. Kloster's background in rail economics and consulting means he arrives understanding the network from the revenue side, which cuts both ways depending on the question in front of him. For anyone tracking the UP-NS proceeding, the composition of the deciding body just changed, and the supplemental-information order means the substantive review has not yet begun in earnest. That sequencing may be deliberate. A reconstituted Board reviewing a refiled application on a fresh record is a different animal than a settled Board ratifying a complete one. Watch how Kloster questions the Applicants when the abeyance lifts. The questions reveal the verdict long before the vote.
■ TECHNOLOGY
LIRR Wants to Amend Its PTC. Read the Fine Print.
The Long Island Rail Road petitioned to amend its Positive Train Control system, the kind of filing that passes without notice until something downstream breaks. PTC amendments are rarely cosmetic. They reflect operational realities the original safety plan did not anticipate — a new territory configuration, a movement the enforcement logic handles badly, a class of operation the system flags when it should not. Every amendment is a small admission that the deployed system and the railroad it governs have drifted apart since certification. On a high-density commuter operation like the LIRR, where headways are tight and the consequence of a false enforcement is a cascade of delay, the pressure to tune the system toward operational fluidity is constant and the pressure to preserve safety margin is statutory. The tension between those two never resolves; it only gets managed, amendment by amendment. The practitioner's question is always the same: does this change relax an enforcement that was catching real risk, or does it correct a nuisance that was degrading reliability without adding safety? The petition will say. The answer is in the operating data, not the cover letter.
■ GENERAL
The CRISI Deadline Slips, and Small Roads Exhale
FRA extended the application deadline for the FY2025-2026 Consolidated Rail Infrastructure and Safety Improvements program past the original June 22 cutoff. A deadline extension sounds like administrative trivia. For a short line engineering department of three people trying to assemble a competitive grant package on top of running the railroad, an extra window is the difference between applying and watching the money go elsewhere. CRISI is one of the few federal programs structured so that smaller carriers and regional projects can actually compete for capital they could never raise on their own balance sheets — bridge rehabilitations, grade crossing eliminations, the unglamorous deferred-maintenance backlog that keeps a light-density line alive. The mechanics matter here. A railroad that can dedicate full-time grant-writing staff has an enormous advantage over one where the same person who writes the application also walks the track. Every extension narrows that gap a little. The downstream effect lands years out, when the awarded projects break ground and a branch that was on the edge of embargo gets new rail instead. The deadline moved. For some properties, that is the whole ballgame.
■ GENERAL
TTX Changes Hands at the Top of the Pool
Tom Wells is retiring as TTX CEO, with Marty Thomas named successor. TTX is the railcar pooling cooperative that the Class I roads collectively own, and it moves the flatcars, boxcars, and intermodal equipment that every carrier draws from without owning. A leadership transition there matters more than the muted coverage suggests, because TTX sits at the precise intersection of fleet utilization, equipment availability, and the car-supply decisions that determine whether a shipper gets loaded on time. The cooperative model means TTX's strategy is set by the same Class I roads now consumed by merger politics — and a consolidating network changes the pooling math. Fewer interchanges, longer single-line hauls, different equipment cycles. Thomas inherits a fleet-management problem that the UP-NS proceeding will reshape regardless of how it resolves. The mechanical officer's interest is concrete: TTX's maintenance standards, repair-billing discipline, and car-supply allocation directly affect what shows up at the loading dock. New leadership means a chance to revisit how aggressively the pool is sized against demand that is, frankly, softer than it was. Watch the fleet decisions. They precede the visible service changes by a year.
■ SAFETY
A Preventable Injury Is a Process Failure Wearing a Hard Hat
SMART-TD flagged what it calls a preventable injury and a predictable outcome — and the phrasing is the point. In the field we learned long ago that 'accident' is usually the wrong word. Most injuries are the visible end of a chain that started with a staffing decision, a schedule compression, a worn tool nobody replaced, or a procedure that everyone quietly worked around because the official way took too long and the train had to move. Preventable means the chain was known. Predictable means somebody, somewhere, had already calculated that running this thin would eventually cost a body, and decided the math worked anyway. That is the part the safety statistics never capture. Behind every recordable lies a series of upstream choices made by people who will never appear on the incident report. The carriers run elaborate safety programs, and many are sincere. But a safety culture that coexists with chronic understaffing is a contradiction the workforce sees clearly even when the dashboards do not. When the union and the company describe the same event in opposite language, believe the people closest to the iron. They were there.
Section VI

Field Notes From The Edge

■ Field Notes From The Edge

Into the Night

The world at large may rest at night — but not completely, for if ever there is an industry that epitomizes "24/7," it is the railroad. There is no distinction between "night" and "day" in the world of railroading. Night is simply the other half of a 24-hour day in which to move freight down the line, closer to its destination.

The deltoid beam of a westbound BNSF mixed manifest cuts a blazing swath through the darkness as the crew performs a roll-by inspection of a unit covered-hopper train at Algoma, Idaho — arguably one of the busiest, if not most congested, sections of BNSF's physical plant. And despite the bottleneck between Sandpoint, Idaho — just a couple of miles east of Algoma — and Spokane, some 56 miles to the southwest, the orchestration of train movement is conducted with arrhythmic, staccato harmony by its dedicated workforce: from the dispatcher to the crew driver; from the train crew to the track inspector; from the MofW worker to the signal maintainer; from the locomotive mechanic to the special agent — and every other employee who ensures its trains never stop moving any longer than it takes to let another pass.

(17Nov16 ©)

Section VII

The Docket

■ The Docket

Complete, Not Cleared

On FD 36873, and the nine questions the Board set before the clock.

On the twenty-eighth of May the Board did the thing that reads, to a casual eye, like progress, and to a practiced one like a held signal: it accepted the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern application as complete, and in the same unanimous decision refused to start the case. The merits, the procedural schedule, the environmental review — all of it went into abeyance. Complete enough to consider. Not developed enough to evaluate. There is a difference, and the Board put the whole transaction inside it.

What stands between the applicants and a schedule is a list. The Board ordered supplemental information on nine matters and set a date: July 27. Read the nine and the case announces itself — enhanced competition, access for the 2-to-1 and 3-to-2 shippers, the service-assurance plan, the diversion analysis, market-share projections, the downstream effects on every other carrier. None of it is housekeeping. These are the questions the merger turns on, and the Board has told the applicants to answer them before the room is asked to weigh in.

Two smaller rulings ride inside the same decision, and both cut against the applicants. The Board denied their motion to lift the bar on ex parte contact — the off-record channel stays shut, the case stays on the record where anyone can read it. And the abeyance, the decision is careful to say, does not halt discovery. The clock that governs the schedule is paused; the clock that governs the work is not. The file keeps building while the calendar waits.

The environmental review paused with everything else, but its shape is set: a full Environmental Impact Statement, at least twelve in-person meetings before it is done — the long road, not the short one. And the body that will weigh all of it is still forming; a new member took the oath on the fifth of June. The bench that rules on the first transcontinental is not the bench that received it.

None of this is a no. None of it is a yes. It is a Board declining to be hurried into either — accepting the paper, withholding the verdict, and handing a merger on a deadline the one thing it cannot manufacture: more questions, and a date to answer them by. July 27 is the applicants' to meet. Nothing schedules until they do.

The Record Doesn't Wait

On Decision No. 23, and the judge who took discovery in hand.

The same week the argument arrived, so did the proof. On June 18 — Decision No. 23 — the administrative law judge over discovery, Jenifer J. Soulikias, granted in part and denied in part the competing motions on the discovery guidelines and entered the guidelines herself. The Board paused the schedule in May; the judge has not paused the record. The applicants asked her to bound it — cap written requests at fifty, or run discovery only through July 27, the date their supplemental filing is due. She refused both: abeyance does not halt discovery, and a record this size will not be walled by number or by calendar. She declined, too, to hold expert depositions to the seven hours the parties set for fact witnesses — the facts and opinions behind an expert's statement are made to be probed — and left the hours to meet-and-confer. Over CPKC's lone objection, she adopted the applicants' one-deposition rule: a witness recalled only on a showing of good cause.

Then she tightened her own grip. On her own initiative she wrote a bi-weekly discovery conference into the guidelines — every other Friday from June 26 into at least December — and opened it to parties with no stake in the dispute at hand. BNSF's second motion to compel and CPKC's she held to that June 26 conference, with a plain warning: narrow the custodial fight, or she resolves it herself, down to the search terms and the custodians. The calendar waits. The work does not.

Off the Record, cont.

On EP 782, and the channel that stayed shut by a day.

The general rule moved while the merger waited. The Board's proposed revision of its ex parte rules — the AAR petition that opened this file — reached a notice of proposed rulemaking in April, and the comment window closed on the twenty-ninth of May. What it proposes is narrow and revealing: in informal rulemakings, permit the off-record meeting after the comment period, on the condition that its substance is promptly disclosed on the public record. The loosening rides; disclosure is the toll. And none of it reaches the merger desk — the bar there held on the twenty-eighth, the day before these comments closed. Two channels, one Board, one week. The record will show which one it chose to keep shut.

Section VIII

From the Ballast Line

■ From the Ballast Line

Railroad Terminals Reflect Their Leadership

You feel it the moment you step out of the truck — not the weather, the temperature of the place. Some terminals feel like home. Others like courtrooms. A few, open-air prisons.

That pulse is no accident, and no quirk of personality. It is set at the top and echoed down the ranks — morale or fear, esprit de corps or silence, all of it the direct reflection of how a place is led. The terminal does not lie. It always shows what kind of leadership it is under.

Section IX

On the Labor Front

■ On the Labor Front
SMART-TD
SMART-TD reports grassroots pressure is moving the needle on drone restrictions around rail operations. The threat is not theoretical — an unauthorized drone over a yard or a moving train is a strike hazard and a surveillance problem at once, and the field has been flagging it longer than the rulemaking has acknowledged.
BLET
BLET is backing legislation to penalize assaults on passenger train crew members, and it is overdue. Conductors and engineers absorb abuse that would draw charges anywhere else, and a federal penalty does what local prosecution rarely manages — it makes the consequence consistent across jurisdictions a train actually crosses.
BLET
The Stop the Rail Merger Coalition fired back at UP CEO Jim Vena's recent comments, and the temperature of that exchange tells you the labor opposition to UP-NS is organized, not reflexive. With the application in abeyance, every public statement becomes part of the record the Board is building.
Section X

Regulatory Wire

■ Regulatory Wire
PHMSA
PHMSA moved to streamline approval requirements for certain energetic materials. Simplifying the approval path is fine until it isn't — the question for anyone moving these commodities by rail is whether the streamlining reduces redundant paperwork or thins the review on materials that genuinely warrant the scrutiny.
STB
The STB launched a new case status page for transparency and accountability. A litigant or a shipper who can see where a proceeding actually stands, rather than guessing from docket entries, holds more leverage than they did last month. Small tool, real effect.
PHMSA
PHMSA finalized a breakout tank inspection rule on the pipeline side, but the read-across to rail tank-car loading terminals is worth noting. Inspection regimes for stored hazardous liquids touch the same facilities where rail meets pipe, and standards set on one mode tend to migrate to the other.
Section XI

Equipment & Fleet

■ Equipment & Fleet
LOCOMOTIVE
The East Broad Top Foundation petitioned FRA for relief on flexible staybolts with caps — pure steam-era boiler territory. For a tourist and heritage operation, these waivers are existential; the original specifications predate the modern rule entirely, and without relief the locomotive simply cannot legally fire. The mechanical case rests on demonstrated equivalent safety, not nostalgia.
LOCOMOTIVE
Grand Canyon Railway petitioned for relief from the 1,472 service-day inspection interval. That inspection cycle is built around mainline duty cycles, and an excursion fleet that runs predictable, low-mileage, well-documented service has a legitimate argument that the calendar-driven trigger doesn't fit how the power actually works. Whether FRA agrees depends entirely on the maintenance records.
RAILCAR
GB Railfreight has entered final testing on its Class 99 dual-mode freight locomotives — electric under wire, diesel where the catenary ends. The architecture is exactly what North American carriers keep studying and shelving, and a fleet proving the concept in real service is worth watching for anyone tracking where freight motive power goes after the straight diesel.
Section XII

Career Opportunities

■ Career Opportunities on the Property
ACI-Herzog Joint Venture • Jersey City, NJ
via LinkedIn
Genesee & Wyoming Inc. • Palmer, MA
via LinkedIn
DART (Dallas Area Rapid Transit) • Dallas, TX
via LinkedIn
Bi-State Development • St Louis, MO
via LinkedIn
The merger sits in abeyance, the LIRR crews are back on the property, and a new short line is taking shape on the border — three stories that will look very different by the time we publish issue eleven. Watch the supplemental filing. That is where the real fight begins.
Section XIII

Railroading Quote

■ Railroading Quote of the Week
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
— George Santayana
The Life of Reason, 1905
The Manifest.
Found this useful? Forward it to a colleague.
To subscribe: steelwheels.co/manifest

SteelWheels.Costeelwheels.cosolutions@steelwheels.co

UnsubscribeIssue Archive
The intelligence contained in The Manifest is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or operational advice. SteelWheels.Co makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of information sourced from third parties. Market data, stock prices, and commodity figures are provided for general reference only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before acting on any information contained herein. © 2026 SteelWheels.Co. All rights reserved.